Sentiment sours in the metals markets

The prices of most precious and industrial metals fell back this week in the wake of a small appreciation of the US dollar. The FOMC minutes, released on Wednesday, all but ensured another US rate hike in March and put downward pressure on the price of gold. Oil prices bucked the otherwise negative trend in industrials and rose on the back of a surprise drop in US stocks. Agricultural commodities, meanwhile, continued to benefit from concerns about drought in key growing regions in the US and Latin America. The focus next week is likely to be on China, with the publication of the official (Wednesday) and unofficial (Thursday) manufacturing PMI surveys for February, which will provide an early indication of the strength of activity at the start of the year. We expect both surveys to have been stable in February, which could offer some support to commodity prices.