Rising geopolitical tension takes its toll on prices

After a strong start to the week, most commodity prices fell back on Friday as concerns about the inflammatory rhetoric between the US and North Korea prompted investors to move out of riskier assets. One exception was the price of gold, which benefitted from safe-haven inflows. Turning to next week, North Korea is likely to remain in the headlines and be the main driver of market sentiment. That said, it is also a busy week on the data front. In particular, China is set to release its July activity and investment data on Monday, which we expect to show persistent strength. Meanwhile, on Wednesday the July FOMC minutes may give us some indication of how low core inflation this year and the upcoming debt ceiling debate could affect the timing of the next US interest rate hike. We still expect the Fed to wait until December before raising interest rates again.