No respite for commodities

After a week when the prices of Brent and WTI fell by around 10%, there could be further big moves in commodity prices next week depending on the outcome of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 summit on Friday. Industrial metals prices, in particular, could fall sharply if there is no sign of compromise in the ongoing trade dispute, while gold could benefit. Meanwhile, the oil market’s attention may also be on the G20 meeting given that President Putin, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Trump will all be in attendance. There may be some clues as to whether Russia and Saudi Arabia will recommend output cuts at the OPEC meeting a week later. While trade and the oil price slump will be the key focus of markets, China is set to publish its November PMI on Friday, which could have an impact on sentiment in the metals markets. We expect that the PMI stabilised at a low level last month, but the markets might be hoping that recent policy loosening is already boosting activity.