Focus may soon return to the Fed

The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that the Chinese economy is picking up again. Fortunately, that is exactly what we expect to happen. One note of caution, though, is that the markets have been too quick to push back expectations for Fed tightening (to the extent that some commentators are even talking of the possible relaunch of QE).