Dollar weakness helping to prop up prices

It has been a relatively quiet week although the prices of most commodities rose, supported by a further depreciation of the US dollar. The precious metals were the relative underperformers, perhaps concerned about the rises in US and European bond yields. Looking to next week, the focus is likely to return to the outlook for US monetary policy with the release of the Fed’s June minutes (Wednesday), the semi-annual report to Congress and the employment report (both on Friday). In addition, the release of the unofficial China June manufacturing PMI on Monday will be closely watched. The official manufacturing PMI (released today) unexpectedly rose, but it has been a poor guide to economic conditions recently. The Caixin index is likely to have remained more downbeat.