Commodity prices take direction from the Fed

Weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing surveys and a fairly hawkish statement from the Fed sent the prices of most commodities lower again this week. Industrial commodities prices were also hit hard by preliminary data from the US showing the lowest vehicle sales for four years in April. What’s more, the price of Brent tumbled later in the week as the contamination problems in Russia seem to be fading and US production reached another record high. Turning to next week, China is set to publish a raft of data. Particular focus will be paid to the trade data on Wednesday. If, as we expect, the April export and import growth numbers are weaker than the consensus, this might lead to further drops in the prices of industrial commodities. Meanwhile, US-China talks will resume in Washington next week. While we doubt that a trade deal will be finalised in the coming days, a resolution to the dispute should give a small, albeit temporary, lift to commodities prices.