Commodity prices initially wavered this week as the dollar strengthened. However, sentiment turned on Friday so that oil and most of the industrial metals ended up on the week. Concerns about oil supply from the Kurdistan region of Iraq gave a boost to oil, while the metals appeared comforted by data showing solid growth in China’s activity in September and in Q3.
Next week is relatively quiet on the data front. There will be flash PMI data for the euro-zone, the US and Japan on Tuesday and, after its meeting on Thursday, the ECB looks likely to announce its intention to taper its asset purchases from January. We expect the Bank to set out a full roadmap to taper down to zero by next September, rather than announcing changes one step at a time.
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