The price of the benchmark no. 2 soft red winter has already fallen by around 20 US cents to just over 660 cents per bushel after Russia’s decision on Friday not to impose any tariff on its grain exports. The consensus appears to be that prices will now find a floor around this level and recover as colder than normal weather damages Ukraine’s winter wheat harvest. However, we believe that wheat prices will fall by more than 20% from its current level, to around 510 cents per bushel, by the end of 2012.
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