Rapid spread of coronavirus adds to downside risks

There is no longer any doubt that the coronavirus outbreak will hurt China’s economy in Q1. While the impact should be short-lived and subsequently reversed, the public and official responses to the outbreak add downside risks to incoming activity and spending data for the next couple of months at least. There may be some early signs in the official PMIs, which are due on Friday next week. China’s Lunar New Year holiday has now begun which will make both controlling the virus and assessing its impact harder.