Today’s US GDP report suggests the Fed is successfully piloting the economy towards a soft landing. Even so, the very slight slowdown in the rate of growth in Q3 – from 2.0% to 1.9% on a q/q annualised basis, and from 2.3% to a near-three-year low of 2.0% in y/y terms – will probably convince the central bank to cut rates again this evening. And if, as we envisage, the economic slowdown continues in Q4, the Fed is likely to do so again in December for the last time in this cycle.
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