Resurgence in COVID-19 cases a key risk to our S&P 500 forecast

Our forecast that equity prices will make renewed headway in due course is predicated on fresh outbreaks of COVID-19 being small and localised. That assumption is being challenged by a resurgence in coronavirus cases, especially in the US. Even so, we suspect that the recent pull-back in the S&P 500 will be short-lived unless the increase in new cases there starts to weigh heavily on the economy.

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