How COVID-19 may affect US vs. European equities

It may seem surprising that the MSCI USA Index has broadly kept up with the MSCI Europe Index in common-currency terms since 8th June, given the simultaneous surge in cases of COVID-19 in the US while the virus has remained under much greater control on the other side of the Atlantic. This reflects the unusual composition of the MSCI USA Index, which has helped to offset growing concerns about renewed lockdown measures on economic activity in the US. Looking ahead, however, we still expect the MSCI USA Index to underperform the MSCI Europe Index, as equities in general gain more ground.