Late to the vaccine recovery

The second waves of COVID-19 currently ripping through Sub-Saharan Africa will keep economic activity depressed over the coming months and, even once vaccines belatedly reach the region, recoveries will remain sluggish. The three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – are set to fare particularly badly. The latter two will probably turn to austerity to put debt trajectories on a more sustainable path. Most other countries in the region will end up living with the legacy of higher debt as global debt relief efforts fail to make more headway. Tourism-dependent economies in Southern Africa will probably stand out with stronger recoveries as visitors trickle back.