Africa: Economy will finally turn the corner in 2020

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa weakened in early 2019, but activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and into 2020 as policy across the region loosens. Even so, our forecasts are below consensus for most African economies. We think that activity in Nigeria and South Africa will remain tepid, despite interest rate cuts in both countries. Smaller economies will remain outperformers. Ethiopia, where the government is launching a bold reform plan, offers the greatest long-term potential.