South African inflation edged up to 2.2% y/y in June and, while it will rise further over the coming months, it is likely to stay close to the lower bound of the central bank’s (SARB’s) target range. The SARB appears to be approaching the end of its easing cycle, but with inflation and the economy likely to be weaker than the Reserve Bank’s current forecasts, we still think that a few more rate cuts lie in store.
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