The past month has brought further signs that countries across Sub-Saharan Africa are struggling to bring the coronavirus under control. Of course, the true extent of the spread of the virus is muddied by low levels of testing. South Africa has accounted for the bulk of the rise in new cases despite having one of the strictest lockdowns on the continent. Concerns that healthcare systems may become overwhelmed has prompted a tightening of containment measures in South Africa as well as Kenya and Botswana. Other countries may follow suit. High frequency data show that this, combined with cautious household behaviour and continued weakness in tourism sectors, has caused activity to level off. All of this reinforces our view that Africa’s economic recovery will be slow and bumpy.
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