Ruth Gregory – Capital Economics deputy chief UK economist
Vote: Hold
What has influenced your decision?
“Financial conditions have tightened further, the jobs market remains weak, and there is little evidence of the second-round inflation effects the Bank fears. So the MPC should remain on hold despite the latest rise in energy prices.”
“But it makes sense to continue to sound hawkish so that financial conditions don’t loosen. And a rate hike in the coming months could still be warranted if energy prices rise further and-or stay high, the chances of second-round effects increase further (either because the economy and-or the labour market is stronger than expected, or because businesses expect to raise wage growth and-or profit margins), or some of the tightening in financial conditions is reversed.”