The pick-up in GDP in Q4 was stronger than most had anticipated. And while it still left output 2.9% below the peak reached ahead of 2019’s sales tax hike, other economic data released this week are consistent with our view that the economy will recover more strongly this year than almost anyone anticipates. We expect GDP to surpass its 2019 peak by the middle of next year, which isn’t any later than what we were anticipating before the pandemic started.
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